Nice essay. But what I found missing was the fact that taiwan is completely export/import dependend. It will not survive a sea blockade for long. And from what I can see, China does have the capabilities to enforce a blockade.
Good essay. Hard to find anything to disagree with.
The points on the small scale of Chinese sealift are crucial; the ROC's submarine force is unimpressive but if the USN is engaged, it's inconceivable that the Chinese could manage ongoing sustainment of a landed force against the USN's interdictment efforts. And that's assuming that Chinese A2/AD is so good that USN surface assets can't get close, which is possible but untested.
Nice essay. But what I found missing was the fact that taiwan is completely export/import dependend. It will not survive a sea blockade for long. And from what I can see, China does have the capabilities to enforce a blockade.
Good essay. Hard to find anything to disagree with.
The points on the small scale of Chinese sealift are crucial; the ROC's submarine force is unimpressive but if the USN is engaged, it's inconceivable that the Chinese could manage ongoing sustainment of a landed force against the USN's interdictment efforts. And that's assuming that Chinese A2/AD is so good that USN surface assets can't get close, which is possible but untested.