Once again, it’s time for “Let’s F*ck with Vlad!” These short articles are where I offer up some proactive measures NATO could take to deal with the rapidly deteriorating situation in Eastern Europe between Russia and Ukraine. All designed to screw with our favorite Russian revanchist by making Kyiv a harder target. Hopefully along the way they also damage the internal stability of Putin’s position in Russia by damaging the pillars of power that support him: the oligarchs, the military and security services, and the compliance of the Russian people. On today’s agenda: western military contractors.
The West has collectively memory holed how proxy wars were fought throughout the Cold War. When great powers wished to engage one another in combat, they did it through intermediaries, proxy forces, and deniable assets of their own military. The inviolable rule was never to let the military’s of Russia and NATO engage each other overtly. It could happen, as long as it was ostensibly deniable and therefore would not force the other side to escalate accordingly. It is time to relearn this, because as far as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is concerned, we’re right back in the geopolitics of the mid-late 20th century.
Fortunately for both Ukraine and NATO, there are options aplenty to make use of this type of tactic that would drastically reduce some of Ukraine’s key vulnerabilities in an open war. Two of these would address major shortfalls of capability that will critically impact Ukraine’s ability during a war with Russia. These will be the subject of this article: modern aircraft, specifically fighters and ground attack airframes, and high-medium air defense (HIMAD) assets.
Both these types of systems are highly technical and require significant levels of training to operate with any degree of effectiveness. This puts them well beyond the ability of the Ukrainian military to acquire and deploy before the likely window for the initiation of offensive Russian operations closes. These weapon systems are likewise game changers in modern war; enemy air superiority can be used to devastating effect against virtually every aspect a modern military. If the Ukrainians cannot generate this capability domestically in the time available, cannot swiftly acquire and deploy the systems for their own use due to long training times, and must address this critical capability shortfall to mount a long term viable defense of their country, what then should NATO do to assist them? Provide both the weapons and crews to man them.
For the reasons discussed above, it cannot be done openly. Fortunately, it doesn’t have to be. During the Korean War, Russian pilots famously flew North Korean MiGs against UN forces to supplement shortfalls in communist Korean aircrews and aircraft. During the Vietnam War Russian advisors similarly helped crew North Vietnamese air defense systems against American aircraft while training communist Vietnamese personnel. Neither operation was ever publicly acknowledged by the Soviet Union during the conflicts. During the Sino-Japanese War, American pilots and ground crews resigned their posts in the US military to become mercenaries and form the famed “Flying Tigers” squadrons that fought for the Nationalist Chinese against Imperial Japan. These historical examples provide pertinent roadmaps for NATO proactivity in Ukraine.
Here’s how it might work. NATO personnel, civilian or military, would be required to officially resign their positions and cut any official ties to their respective governments and the alliance as a whole. They could then, officially, be recruited directly by Ukraine or by a private military contractor employed by Ukraine and created solely for this purpose. The US government, in conjunction with NATO, could then provide “loans” with which Ukraine could purchase their services along with the equipment they would need. The latter would likewise be provided by NATO. Voila, NATO troop with NATO weapon systems fighting for Ukraine on a volunteer basis with plausible (or at least superficial) deniability, without bankrupting Ukraine in the process. Welcome to Proxy War.
The type and size of this force could vary widely based on the willingness of both NATO and Ukraine to engage in such an enterprise, though its likely Ukraine would take as many personnel as it could get. Certainly, NATO could deploy squadrons of combat aircraft and their ground support crews in this manner. HIMAD batteries to support the threadbare Ukrainian air defense network would also be relatively easy to arrange. The most aggressive option might include battalion or regimental combat team sized formations of NATO ground troops, though this would likely strain plausible deniability to the breaking point.
This option differs from previous offerings in two major ways. First it is overtly aggressive by NATO, and second it virtually ensures some number of NATO casualties. It compensates for this somewhat by making participation deniable and voluntary among the personnel involved, contributing directly to Ukrainian survivability by making up for capability shortfalls in their forces, and directly inflicting (likely disproportionate to the NATO commitment) Russian casualties.
The West is swiftly running out of time for non-confrontational options to have serious effect in deterring or halting Russian aggression. Deploying ostensible mercenaries to assist the Ukrainian Armed Forces may be provocative, but it also stands a chance at prolonging the existence of the Ukrainian State in the face of invasion. Such an enterprise cannot be organized overnight, preparations to implement it should begin immediately.
*Note: This article was written just prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the night of 23-24 February 2022.
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