Welcome back to my series; “Let’s F*ck with Vlad!” Here I offer up some of the possibilities NATO could take advantage of in order to turn the current impending debacle in Ukraine to Western advantage. We start with some basic assumptions developed in more detail in the previous article: the deterrence window is closing and in the event of an invasion, NATO must now shift into modes of support for Ukraine that will maximize Putin’s pain. The key targets are the Russian economy, Russian prestige, and Putin’s powerbase. So what option do we have to torment Fearless Leader with this time? Anti-ship missiles, lots of them.
The Black Sea has long been regarded by Moscow as a Russian lake in all but name. Prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was home to the only shipyard capable of constructing aircraft carriers, (at Mykolaiv, now in Ukraine), and perhaps the most important Russian warm water port in Europe, at Sevastopol in Crimea (conquered in 2014). Today Russia maintains a robust naval presence in the Black Sea consisting of one cruiser and twenty-seven escorts ranging from frigates to corvettes and patrol craft, in addition to a handful of submarines and support ships. Additionally, numerous Russian warships are currently on maneuvers throughout European waters, some of them will certainly find themselves in the Black Sea if and when hostilities commence. Particularly notable is the Russian amphibious transport force and heavy naval units currently at sea. The threat of amphibious invasion from that transport force, currently heading into the Black Sea from the Eastern Mediterranean, will require the Ukrainian Armed Forces to defend coastal targets and disperse their defensive strength, whether seaborne invasion is actually intended or not. But what if that concentration of naval strength could be turned into a liability?
NATO member states manufacture a host of various anti-ship missile systems that can be deployed from a variety of air, land, and sea based platforms. Providing these munitions to Ukraine, with the appropriate modifications to allow for their use from primarily ex-Soviet air (and possibly ground) platforms, turns the Russian lake into a potential shooting gallery. This is all to the good.
Mere possession of such capability by Ukraine would force Russian caution in naval operations. While a Slavic Pearl Harbor with Russian ships being destroyed at anchor in Sevastopol or Novorossiya by air-launched anti-ship missiles is highly unlikely, it’s also not impossible. A strike against their fleet in the open sea is easier to imagine if it approaches the Ukrainian coast. Keeping these expensive, difficult to replace assets in the Black Sea under such conditions forces Russia to accept a significant risk of their destruction. Conversely, withdrawing them from the area is a blow to Russian prestige.
Most catastrophic for Russia, and by extension Putin himself, would be for major Russian naval assets to be destroyed at sea by an anti-ship missile attack. The obvious loss of expensive, technologically advanced, and extremely difficult to replace assets is bad enough. The deaths of hundreds (potentially thousands) of Russian military personnel in a single attack, even worse. Stripping away the veneer of near-invincible Russian military power is the most damaging long term. A major loss by the Russian Navy to the Ukrainians would inflict significant psychological damage to Russia, especially to military morale and to Putin’s prestige and political power. Conversely, it would be an enormous boost to the Ukrainian’s morale and to their will to resist.
For Putin in particular, the loss of capital ships would be symbolically dangerous beyond the normal military and propaganda assessments of such a loss. The armed forces are a major pillar maintaining Putin in power. Such a public humiliation of the Russian military by Ukraine, resulting from Putin’s personal decision to invade it would severely damage his powerbase. One sided engagements that inflict massive Russian casualties will be particularly dangerous to that relationship, as they tend to be jarring to modern military establishments. The Soviet Union could have lost several thousand trained (as opposed to conscript) personnel in an afternoon without batting an eye. The Russian Federation cannot boast the same institutional resiliency.
As with the previously discussed idea of shifting massive stocks of ex-Soviet equipment from current NATO members to Ukraine, supplying large numbers of anti-ship missiles is a low cost and potentially high reward move for NATO. At a minimum, it serves to restrict Russian naval operations and remove their previous assumption of near risk free operations in the Black Sea against Ukraine. If the Ukrainians get lucky, it may weaken an important arm of the Russian military and strike a significant political blow against Russian adventurism in the near abroad, while providing a priceless propaganda victory for Ukraine. There is still time to play this card and the missiles should be dispatched immediately.
Patrick, You need to be in the war room. Seriously.
It seems someone did take note .. ;)