Caging the Bear

Deterring Russian Nuclear Deployment in Ukraine

President Putin recently renewed Russian nuclear saber rattling during his Sept. 21 mobilization speech, following a series of conventional setbacks in the Russo-Ukrainian War.  The Biden administration has warned of “catastrophic consequences” should Russia initiate a nuclear strike and the President has stated that the threat of “nuclear Armageddon” is at its highest level in 60 years – a clear reference to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.  Unfortunately, while the American Government may be saying some of the correct things, it isn’t taking any of the required actions commensurate with its rhetoric.  Russia ignores Western speeches; it pays attention to Western action.

               A great deal of recent writing and commentary surrounding the statements of Vladimir Putin has centered on the question of what to do if Russia uses a nucleal weapon in Ukraine.  This is fundamentally incorrect.  It’s a reactive mindset in line with the critical lack of initiative that has become a hallmark of US/NATO policy when dealing with Russia.  The correct course of action is to determine how we can prevent Russia from using a nuclear device in the first place.  The answer falls squarely under traditional US nuclear deterrence strategy as it evolved during the Cold War.